In just 60 days, coffee has helped Vietnam earn nearly 1.4 billion USD, with hopes of setting a new record in 2024. Coffee has not only set a domestic record but also ranked second in global exports.
Coffee has been a surprising leader among Vietnam’s agricultural exports. According to the latest report from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, from the beginning of the year until the end of February 2024, all agricultural export groups have shown growth compared to the same period in 2023. The total export value reached 9.84 billion USD, marking a 50.3% increase year-on-year. Additionally, the agricultural sector achieved a trade surplus of 2.68 billion USD, which is nearly three times higher than last year.
Notably, Vietnam’s coffee export revenue reached 1.38 billion USD in the first two months of 2024, a 96% increase compared to the same period last year. This is the first time in coffee history that it has surpassed seafood to become the second largest export item (after wood and wood products) in the agricultural sector.
According to preliminary statistics from the General Department of Customs, by mid-February 2024, Vietnam exported nearly 57,000 tons of coffee , amounting to 184.4 million USD. From the beginning of the year until February 15, 2024, Vietnam exported nearly 295,000 tons of , totaling 911 million USD.
Compared to the same period in 2023, the export value in the first two months of 2024 has seen a significant increase. Currently, the average export price of coffee in Vietnam is around 3,100 USD per ton, an increase of nearly 43% compared to the same period last year.
With positive signs in coffee prices during the first two months of the year, experts forecast that Vietnam’s exports could reach between 4.5 to 5 billion USD in 2024. Achieving this milestone would set a new record for Vietnam’s coffee export revenue.
In 2023, Vietnam’s export revenue reached 4.24 billion USD, a 4.6% increase compared to 2022, marking the highest level to date and the second consecutive year that Vietnam’s coffee export value exceeded 4 billion USD. Germany, Italy, and the United States were among the top export markets for Vietnamese coffee in 2023.
According to the International Coffee Organization (ICO), while there is no shortage of Arabica coffee globally, there are challenges with Robusta. Vietnam has been the world’s number one producer and supplier of Robusta coffee for many years. Therefore, many countries are accustomed to buying Vietnam’s Robusta coffee. The ICO report indicates that Robusta coffee prices have reached their highest level in 30 years due to concerns about tightened supply in Vietnam.
Global Robusta coffee supply remains constrained, with price resistance in domestic markets of many producing countries. Additionally, EU regulations on Forest Law Enforcement, Governance, and Trade (FLEGT) affect prices because many countries have not yet prepared the necessary procedures to comply with these requirements. Consequently, Vietnam’s coffee continues to benefit from higher prices.
In addition to price advantages, experts believe that Vietnam’s ability to dominate the coffee export market, especially Robusta, in the early months of 2024, will provide a dual advantage in increasing export value. Moreover, Vietnam’s coffee is currently abundant in supply during this time of year, while both Brazil and Indonesia are expected to reduce export activities after massive sales in the latter half of 2023.
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